CARY, NC, December 10, 2024-

Macroeconomic Overview: The days around Thanksgiving are traditionally rank among the busiest of the year for U.S. retailers.  This year, Thanksgiving (celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November) was later than usual, which means there are fewer days for shopping between Thanksgiving and Christmas (five fewer days between the holidays this year than there were last year).  With less time between the holidays, retailers have been trying to pull spending forward, with many stores putting Christmas-related goods on display ahead of Thanksgiving.

In its forecast for the holiday season, the National Retail Federation (NRF) suggested that consumers will increase spending 2.5% to 3.5% in 2024.  This is slower than the strong rates of growth in recent years (+12.4% in 2021, +4.7% in 2022, +3.9% in 2023).  However, it aligns with the NRF’s expectation that annual spending will be +2.5% to +3.5% higher throughout the entire 2024 calendar year.  A primary factor supporting growth in consumer spending has been the health of the labor market.  Unemployment remains at historically low levels while wage growth has been outpacing inflation since the second quarter of 2023.

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