FINANCIAL ANALYSTS: Fluff Pulp - 2017-19 outlook impacted by the softwood pulp balance [VRP]




NEW YORK, May 25, 2016-

Fluff Pulp Demand Approached “Potential” Capacity in 2015 – Note that there is almost always sufficient capacity to meet the demand of fluff pulp customers as producers typically switch to “unfluffed” paper-grade pulp production with excess mill capacity, typically southern bleached softwood kraft (SBSK). That said, we believe that 2015’s global fluff pulp demand of 5.8 million metric tons (tonnes) was close (98.9%) to the world’s then potential fluff pulp capacity in 2015 (of just under 5.9 million tonnes).

    IP, Domtar Conversions Could Ease Conditions Soon – The current number 3 and 4 players in the global pulp market, International Paper and Domtar, are adding a combined potential fluff pulp capacity of 876,000 tonnes through mill conversions. Specifically, IP is adding up to 360,000 tonnes at its Riegelwood, NC mill and Domtar is adding a potential 516,000 tonnes at its Ashdown, AR mill. (Again, we say “potential capacity” as fluff machines can also make paper-grade softwood pulp used in tissue, printing papers, and bleached board.) Given the demanding technical requirements, these facilities will ease into the market gradually over at least a year, and (depending on the pace of market growth) perhaps several years.


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